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View Poll Results: Are you changing your asset allocation due to pandemic market impact?
Staying the course 264 74.58%
Selling it all (or a lot of it) 48 13.56%
Other (please explain) 27 7.63%
Pie 15 4.24%
Voters: 354. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-12-2020, 07:22 PM   #21
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I voted for stay the course. The stocks we own (mostly tech) are doing well and actually went up so we are at 70% equity now which is higher than what we would like. We might slowly rebalance.
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:28 PM   #22
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I'm staying the course. Not going to touch my AA until Jan 2021 which is when I regularly rebalance .
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:46 PM   #23
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Stay the course, no brainer. I did in ‘87, ‘00 and ‘08-09, why change now? There’s a correlation between stay the course and FI, so this is not a typical audience for such a poll. I’m glad.
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:48 PM   #24
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I planned for this type of event since 2015 knowing I was retiring in 2020. I bought laddered bonds out 7-8 years plus from my retirement date. Dialed back equities over the last few years. Plan to slowly add back into equities over the next few years as bonds mature. Kitces’ rising equity glide path model. Now I just let my plan work. I really don’t have any concerns.
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:57 PM   #25
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Other.

I planned to stay the course, but this market has me dumbfounded. I did a rebalance on the way down when it hit my rebalance band and the didn't work out so well as the market continued down. Seeing that, I kind of froze up and did not rebalance again around the V bottom.

With the bounce, I've decided to do a bit of market timing and dumped my REIT and small/mid-cap positions, which I think are riskier than large cap U.S. for a while. So I'm down around 40/60 AA vs my target of 58/42. I cannot imagine another down-leg not happening as Q2 earnings roll out, but who knows. I hope to re-invest in equities over the next six months. I know, hope and change is not a plan.

None of this affects my FI status as even at the deepest drop I was over 100% in FIRECalc, so it is perhaps all noise.
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:58 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
I planned for this type of event since 2015 knowing I was retiring in 2020. I bought laddered bonds out 7-8 years plus from my retirement date. Dialed back equities over the last few years. Plan to slowly add back into equities over the next few years as bonds mature. Kitces’ rising equity glide path model. Now I just let my plan work. I really don’t have any concerns.
+1

I changed my AA last year to 45 Stock / 55 Bonds in an attempt to setup the rising equity glide path to mitigate SOR risk also.

The bonds are throwing off regular income and since I formed a 10 year ladder, there is plenty of bond principal in case I need it. FWIW I used the Bulletshare target-maturity ETFs to easily implement this.

I will hang onto the stock funds and not watch it too closely. Not interested in market timing ,in that I have already won the game (ie retired - enough money) and I am not trying to maximize anyone's inheritance.

If I were still working and looking to retire, I would probably be much more concerned about market behavior.
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Old 05-12-2020, 08:30 PM   #27
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staying the course I went to 40% equities 5 yrs before I RE (which was nearly 5 yrs ago) and have stayed there ever since, so already more conservative than some. As a nation we have dealt with worse than the current situation, with all its uncertainties as regards what the outcome will look like once we are past this and able to look back on it, more than once in the past.
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Old 05-12-2020, 11:43 PM   #28
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Voted pie since I really wasn't sure what to say. I haven't sold it all and don't plan to sell a lot (whatever that means). I did switch out my mid cap and small cap funds to the total stock market fund. I had been planning to do that as part of simplification right before this happened. Then when everything went down, I was hesitant whether to go ahead and do it. I did do it.

There is a possibility I may make an asset allocation change. I had been 55/45 for years but was planning to go to 50/50. Basically I felt that DH and I had gotten old enough that was warranted (DH is 72 and I am 66). I even thought about whether I should go to 45/55 or even a little lower. But before I really decided everything went down. As it turned out when everything went down that sort of took care of the asset allocation. I'm now at 46/54 and will probably hold there. It is possible I might go to 40/60 but no plans to right now.
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Old 05-13-2020, 04:38 AM   #29
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I don't see how the market is holding up as well as it is with what must be happening to earnings and how long it will last. However, I am pretty convinced that if I get out it will be the wrong thing in the long run. I do think that we may have seen the absolute bottom in the economy, as even partial reopening will stop the fall, even though the recovery will likely be slow until there is a vaccine.
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Old 05-13-2020, 04:45 AM   #30
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Staying the course. I got out for a while in y2k, and vowed to never do it again.
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Poll: Stay the course or Sell it All. May 2020
Old 05-13-2020, 06:04 AM   #31
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Poll: Stay the course or Sell it All. May 2020

At ages 55 and 57 we are using the Rule of 55 to bridge to 59.5. DW is doing that already and now my job is in some question. A couple of weeks ago during this “bounce back” I moved about $300,000 in already-conservative Target 2020 funds in our 403b and TSP into a bond index and G Fund (Treasuries) respectively. I left the longer term IRAs and Roth’s alone at 50/50. Net effect is, I sold about 10% of our stocks at June prices to gain peace of mind for 3-5 years.

It seemed a prudent adjustment since our need to use the money has emerged now, after a decade long bull run, when all asset prices were already high even before this pandemic-based recession.
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Old 05-13-2020, 06:37 AM   #32
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Key Lime Pie.

I bought some equities in late March. Since then, I became more convinced that the recovery may be slow and perhaps we've not found the bottom yet. Decided I'd sleep better with 10 (+) years of after tax assets, so I sold same. I got lucky, as I made about 10%. But that was just that - luck. I'm not a market timer. I'm okay if I miss any run up profits. Pigs get fed -hogs get slaughtered.
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:11 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Red Badger View Post
Key Lime Pie.
Trader Joe's has a seasonal frozen key lime pie that is to die for!

I sold some individual stocks late in 2018 and kept it in a MM, then sold some more individual stocks the first two days of the sell off (was going to do it anyway based on an article about supply chain disruptions.) I put some of the money back into iTOT and a big chunk into an Ally penalty free CD.

I am doing the dirty market timing thing with the CD money. My long term plan as been to move out of individual stocks and into index funds/ETFs. A down market in 2021 would help to sell off and reinvest the remaining stocks.
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:23 AM   #34
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I did not sell it all … I am not staying the course … I did reduce my equity exposure. So, I am not sure if that is other or if that is pie. Not sure what pie means - unless we are talking apple or moon. So, I voted other.
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:36 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
I planned for this type of event since 2015 knowing I was retiring in 2020. I bought laddered bonds out 7-8 years plus from my retirement date. Dialed back equities over the last few years. Plan to slowly add back into equities over the next few years as bonds mature. Kitces’ rising equity glide path model. Now I just let my plan work. I really don’t have any concerns.


Ditto....

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Old 05-13-2020, 07:40 AM   #36
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Steady as she goes....Been there, done that.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:00 AM   #37
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Stay the course, no brainer. I did in ‘87, ‘00 and ‘08-09, why change now? There’s a correlation between stay the course and FI, so this is not a typical audience for such a poll. I’m glad.
The logic is overwhelming, yet the belief that markets only go up in the long term is so ingrained that logic is ignored which shows why the stock market is valued so highly. One thing is fairly certain, the value of the stock market relative to GDP on May 8th is going to be the most overvalued level in the history of the Wall Street. One has an opportunity to cash out at nearly the highest value of stocks to GDP on a normal economic metric if one were to totally dismiss the dismantling of the economy. Indeed one could sell and set a rebuy point if the market were to even go up to 3100 on the S&P500 and risk a pittance of upside gain missed while provide a major risk unload on a very likely decline.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:17 AM   #38
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Voted "Other" - Increased asset allocation from 47/53 to 80/20 during the downturn. Taking advantage to increase equities during downturns is part of our financial plan.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:32 AM   #39
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Sold MIC after they cancelled dividends (with a big loss) recently but the rest is: stay the course and voted so.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:59 AM   #40
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I considered selling some for a larger slice of cash a couple of years ago but didn't until the end of last year while the market was still high. Glad I did. Now I am in the catbird seat if the market takes a downward turn and if I want to buy a little. Otherwise I'm good for forever (for us that may be 15 years if luck holds up) and the kids will be set too unless they do something stupid. I always stayed the course while working and contributing to 403b and Roth. It's a little different when you are retired and past 70 with no mortgage, no debt, medical taken care of until the bucket is kicked, want to be stress free, have the option to blow the dough, and have enough for a good inheritance for each of the grown kids.

As long as the dollar holds most of its value and doesn't go the way of a Confederate dollar we will be fine.



Cheers!
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