Herd Immunity in the US out of Reach

[tmm99]

the reuters link on page 4

Oh, you said that it had been debunked already, so I was looking for an article that stated that. The link you're pointing at just explains that the studies are ongoing.

 

[RAE]

My immune system is very robust and I don't have any of the risk factors related to severe COVID conditions. My wife is more at risk, but has a history of serious vaccine adverse reactions. Tough call on either front, but we think it is prudent to wait and continue researching and weighing the risks either way.

The situation with my wife and I is very similar to yours. The only difference is that my wife and I have already had COVID. We both got through it in about a week or so, and have had no lingering after-effects. There is a fair amount of evidence now that those that have had COVID do have "durable immunity" that offers a fair amount of protection. So, based on that, we are in no hurry to get this vaccine. Like you, we continue to weigh the risks and wait for the science to progress. We are comfortable with that decision.

 

[RAE]

When doing any kind of risk assessment, even with access to all available data, there will always be the consistent variable of "we don't know what we don't know."

Is there a possibility that these vaccines can cause long term organ damage or neurological issues in a small subset of people? We don't know. We do know, based on the existing VAERS data that some people have experienced adverse effects in the short term post vaccination, including blood clots, anaphylactic shock and even death. What are the risk factors and what could be the root cause?

Is there a possibility that enabling the body to recognize the Sars-CoV-2 spike protein could potentially interfere with future treatments that may be necessary to fight a variant or another type of deadly virus or pathogen? Impossible to know.

I'm not saying any of these risks are likely or particularly high for the general population, but we have to acknowledge that there are unknowns and prudent people should always consider this before making personal decisions affecting their health.

+1000. Well stated.

 

[tmm99]

I can see that some people don't want to get vaccinated yet (I know at least one person here is waiting for Novavax.) I live in Canada and our numbers are getting very, very bad with ICUs filling up (they're transferring patients to another city due to lack of ICU beds.). I can try to protect myself by not going out, but I shudder to think what may be the outcome if I should have to visit ER with something unforeseen. I have gotten my first Pfizer shot as soon as it became available for my age group and I already have the 2nd shot scheduled.

Over here in Canada, AstraZeneca is approved (from 30+) despite the chance of blood clots in every 100,000 to 250,000 people, and it's flying off the shelf because we're short of vaccines (We just started our distributions of Pfizer once again - 2M per week or something like that.)

If you're an essential worker in manufacturing, your chances of catching COVID is very, very high so they were getting any vaccines available. (According to the infectious doc on CTV today, COVID causes blood clots in 1 in 20 people, 1 in 5 in hospitalized patients and 1 in 2 in ICUs or something like that. Yet, we still see huge lines to get vaccinated with vaccines, including Astra Zeneca.

Hopefully, with children vaccinated, the percentage is high enough that we'll get some herd protection.

 

[ivinsfan]

Oh, you said that it had been debunked already, so I was looking for an article that stated that. The link you're pointing at just explains that the studies are ongoing.

It says there is no indication that the rate of infection was higher then expected in the general public. They are looking at it but don't see a higher incidence because of the vaccine. Kind of like the issue with people getting shingles within several weeks of the vaccine.

 

[RAE]

We KNOW there are serious health issues from getting COVID. We don't know of any serious adverse effects of the vaccine. There is no realistic way to protect yourself from getting COVID without a vaccine other than living in a cave and never going to get a cavity filled or a mammogram.

You are forgetting that at least 120 million people in the U.S. have already had COVID, and the vast majority of those have recovered without lingering health issues. Most, if not all of those people are very likely to now have the T-cells and B-cells that likely provide a good degree of protective immunity. A recent paper in Science found that this virus-induced immunity is even stronger at 8 months after infection, so there is a good likelihood that the immunity is "durable".

 

[ivinsfan]

You are forgetting that at least 120 million people in the U.S. have already had COVID, and the vast majority of those have recovered without lingering health issues. Most, if not all of those people are very likely to now have the T-cells and B-cells that likely provide a good degree of protective immunity. A recent paper in Science found that this virus-induced immunity is even stronger at 8 months after infection, so there is a good likelihood that the immunity is "durable".

The official number tested positive nationally is about 32.5 million...You can say at least 120 million but who knows really? I suspect it's between those two numbers. Where did you see the 120 million number?

 

[Aerides]

*Mod Note*

As with all Covid discussions, we have a higher bar for contributions. If you're going to cite news or data, especially facts and figures beyond those widely known, include links to valid sources. Arbitrary opinions and personal theories, if you choose to share them, are ok, but let's not state those as fact.

 

[USGrant1962]

The official number tested positive nationally is about 32.5 million...You can say at least 120 million but who knows really? I suspect it's between those two numbers. Where did you see the 120 million number?

From CDC: 1 in 4.3 (95% UI* 3.7 – 5.0) total COVID–19 infections were reported

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

Numbers in the range of 3-5 unreported infections per reported infection have been around for a long time.

EDIT: and

These estimates suggest that during that period, there were approximately:

114.6 Million
Estimated Total Infections

97.1 Million
Estimated Symptomatic Illnesses

5.6 Million
Estimated Hospitalizations

 

[freedomatlast]

Since this is a vaccine discussion on an ER site, it would be interesting to see if those on this site that seem really risk adverse to the point of refusing to be vaccinated, are also so risk adverse, that they hold mostly CD's and cash in their portfolio. We do know, and most agree, that the risk from side effects from the vaccine are much lower than the risk of serious illness or death from the virus. We also know that holding a high percentage of CDs and cash will not offer long term protection from inflation. Available facts don't seem to make a difference to some when it comes to decision making. To each their own.

 

[street]

I did my part today and got the first one.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Look we are talking vaccines here, not drugs developed to treat certain conditions. Vaccines are truly one of the marvels of modern medicine and have saved millions of people from death and long term health misery.


Never mind you just stay at home if that works for you.

I have personally received a vaccine that was later pulled from the market due to safety issues that became apparent only after the vaccine was available. Perhaps you shouldn't be quite so smug about others with differencing opinions?

I personally jumped on the opportunity to get the Pfizer COVID vaccine, based on my own personal assessment of risk vs. reward.

For my child (18), I left that decision up to him, and quite frankly the risk/reward assessment isn't nearly as convincing. In the end, he decided to go forward with getting the vaccine, which was put on hold 2 days later (J&J). But I would not have argued or thought less of him had he decided to not get the vaccine, given his age and risk profile.

 

[ivinsfan]

From CDC: 1 in 4.3 (95% UI* 3.7 – 5.0) total COVID–19 infections were reported

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

Numbers in the range of 3-5 unreported infections per reported infection have been around for a long time.

EDIT: and

This is interesting because it assumes that over 60 million people had Covid symptoms and didn't get tested. That seems high. So the number would be top end 115 million not 120 plus...

 

[ivinsfan]

I have personally received a vaccine that was later pulled from the market due to safety issues that became apparent only after the vaccine was available. Perhaps you shouldn't be quite so smug about others with differencing opinions?

I personally jumped on the opportunity to get the Pfizer COVID vaccine, based on my own personal assessment of risk vs. reward.

For my child (18), I left that decision up to him, and quite frankly the risk/reward assessment isn't nearly as convincing. In the end, he decided to go forward with getting the vaccine, which was put on hold 2 days later (J&J). But I would not have argued or thought less of him had he decided to not get the vaccine, given his age and risk profile.

If it works for people to stay home that works too, not sure why you think that was smug. It's also true that vaccines have saved millions of lives.


Just for curiosity would you mind sharing the vaccine that was a problem? Was it a childhood vaccine?

 

[Gumby]

For everyone who is "weighing the risks", let me just say this: You have every right to risk your own life and health. You do not have the right to risk the lives and health of others. Only one of your two choices does not risk the life and health of others, and you know which one that is.

 

[kjpliny]

For everyone who is "weighing the risks", let me just say this: You have every right to risk your own life and health. You do not have the right to risk the lives and health of others. Only one of your two choices does not risk the life and health of others, and you know which one that is.

Only if you're infected with COVID.

 

[ivinsfan]

For everyone who is "weighing the risks", let me just say this: You have every right to risk your own life and health. You do not have the right to risk the lives and health of others. Only one of your two choices does not risk the life and health of others, and you know which one that is.

To be fair, if they really stay home and never see people they aren't a hazard to others, but how many people really do that?

 

[RAE]

The official number tested positive nationally is about 32.5 million...You can say at least 120 million but who knows really? I suspect it's between those two numbers. Where did you see the 120 million number?

CDC estimates that 114.6 million people have been infected through the end of March, 2021. If you add in the infections since then, it's pretty close to 120 million.


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html#whycdcestimates

 

[Gumby]

To be fair, if they really stay home and never see people they aren't a hazard to others, but how many people really do that?

My best approximation would be zero.

 

[RAE]

. We do know, and most agree, that the risk from side effects from the vaccine are much lower than the risk of serious illness or death from the virus. .

I don't agree with this premise - especially for people who have none of the risk factors for becoming seriously ill from COVID. All we know so far is that the number of serious side effects experienced SO FAR, after only administering the vaccine to people for a few months or so, is not very high. As others have stated in this thread, it typically takes years of clinical trials before we know all of the potential side effects of a vaccine. And this one is brand new technology, so you could argue that this COVID vaccine requires even a longer test period before we will know whether there are any long-term issues.

 

[ivinsfan]

CDC estimates that 114.6 million people have been infected through the end of March, 2021. If you add in the infections since then, it's pretty close to 120 million.


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html#whycdcestimates

easier to stick with the verified numbers then we are all talking about the same thing. they are estimates anyway.

 

[RetMD21]

Well, there are different ways to get to herd immunity and with imported cases and vaccine resistors it isn't realistic to think that the virus is going to fade away entirely. I think there is clustering of folks who don't want the vaccine so there will likely be a potential for severe localized outbreaks. The virus is pretty efficient and it will get to many of the unvaccinated eventually.

 

[kjpliny]

Vaccines are not the only solution to addressing a pandemic. Rapid testing can be a very effective way to reduce the risk of transmission.

Thinking outside the box for a minute, imagine if there was a way to develop a reliable 30 second cheap test, where someone could lick a test strip and observe a color change to determine if the virus was present. One color indicates a positive and another color indicates negative. You could control admission to establishments based on the test result. This would not infringe on anyone's rights, nor would it require an experimental injection into billions of people. Not much more inconvenient than checking ID before allowing someone into a club or bar.

 

[thod]

For everyone who is "weighing the risks", let me just say this: You have every right to risk your own life and health. You do not have the right to risk the lives and health of others. Only one of your two choices does not risk the life and health of others, and you know which one that is.

“Well said.

The vaccine has side effects and can cause problems, sometimes even death.
So no one should get the vaccine.”

Not exactly what you were thinking, was it.

That is why making absolute requirements with no wiggle room for free choice is always a bad position.

The vaccines exist, they appear to work against covid. However they do sometimes cause issues.

We as a society should respect those that do not want the vaccine for whatever reason. Herd immunity does not require 100%, heck 50% would be good enough.

Those that choose not to get it are the ones taking the risk. So let them.

 

[ivinsfan]

Vaccines are not the only solution to addressing a pandemic. Rapid testing can be a very effective way to reduce the risk of transmission.

Thinking outside the box for a minute, imagine if there was a way to develop a reliable 30 second cheap test, where someone could lick a test strip and observe a color change to determine if the virus was present. One color indicates a positive and another color indicates negative. You could control admission to establishments based on the test result. This would not infringe on anyone's rights, nor would it require an experimental injection into billions of people. Not much more inconvenient than checking ID before allowing someone into a club or bar.

Of course you would have to stand in line with all the other people rapid testing which in it's self is a transmission vector. Since I have a vaccination card would I be able to skip that line?