Delta variant can infect families from exposed children, even vaccinated adults.

[Midpack]

We are vaccinated, yet still wearing masks when out. I have two DGK who are too young to be receive Covid shots yet, and I do not want to risk passing it to them if I were to test positive. The Delta variant is so much more transmissible.

We've both had two Moderna mRNA vaccines, so we're fortunate. But we're wearing masks when indoors with a bunch of strangers, and back to eating outside at restaurants. Knowing about half the population isn't vaccinated, I don't see a downside considering, if it's overkill so what IMO. YMMV

 

[MichaelB]

We've both had two Moderna mRNA vaccines, so we're fortunate. But we're wearing masks when indoors with a bunch of strangers, and back to eating outside at restaurants. Knowing about half the population isn't vaccinated, I don't see a downside considering, if it's overkill so what IMO. YMMV

Same with me. The downside is perhaps a bit of inconvenience, but if this leads to a slower overall spread of covid, then it’s best for all.

 

[pacergal]

I am not sure how much a worry this would be for me. Covid is not particularly dangerous for the young, and I might want mine exposed at young, healthy age.

Not dissimilar to chicken pox in that sense

There is no guarantee that any child would not have a severe case, hospitals are reporting more younger kids in ICUs from Covid.

As a nurse, I have seen babies in the hospital with pneumonia and inflammation of the brain from Varicellla (chicken pox) as they are too young to get vaccinated.
Severe reactions can and do happen.

I do not want to risk being a vector to my grand babies.

 

[Montecfo]

There is no guarantee that any child would not have a severe case, hospitals are reporting more younger kids in ICUs from Covid.

As a nurse, I have seen babies in the hospital with pneumonia and inflammation of the brain from Varicellla (chicken pox) as they are too young to get vaccinated.
Severe reactions can and do happen.

I do not want to risk being a vector to my grand babies.

My point is you may be trading one risk for another. Per the data, risk to the young is quite small. Small enough that kids attend school together. Risk increases with age.

No guarantees either way. But as you say (and I agree) being careful has little downside.

 

[Sunset]

I am not sure how much a worry this would be for me. Covid is not particularly dangerous for the young, and I might want mine exposed at young, healthy age.

Not dissimilar to chicken pox in that sense

Except, some healthy young children do die, and others survive with possibly long term damage.

I will wear a mask in the presence of my GC, because in about 6 months, we will know if the vaccine is safe for young children and I don't find 6 months being careful a burden compared to how I'd feel if they caught it and died/crippled for life.

I make them buckle up in the car.
Not because it's a law that's inconvenient, but because there is a very small chance I'll be in a serious car accident.
I have never been in a serious car accident in close to 50 yrs of driving, so I've proven the odds are very small that driving is dangerous.

 

[ivinsfan]

I think the one real "newsy" part of the Delta variant that most might not be aware of, is the way symptoms present. Especially for those already vaccinated, it seems to be similar to a head cold. OG Covid most definitely wasn't, it was a cough, lungs, etc. Not sniffles and stuffiness (mosts, exceptions, 80/20 rule, etc.)

So someone not immersed in the news might get a cold and think little of it. My sister actually had a cold a couple of weeks ago, which started the day after our last visit. She thought nothing of it at the time, other than cancelling a visit with our parents that weekend as a precaution - something we always do anyway.

No idea if she actually had Delta now, or if she passed it to me as it was incubating and I had a no symptom case? But, point being, a cold might not just be a cold.

In a perfect would this would ok, the non perfect world is the unvaxxed running throwing a monkey wrench in the system. I've seen conflicting reports in our local papers, some are getting vaccinated finally because Delta spreads more and some are saying that Delta not that bad so I'm still not vaccinating.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post

Confused again (sorry!). If the death rate hasn't moved, what leads to the vaccine being effective in reducing serious illness? Wouldn't we expect to see a decrease in deaths as vaccinations increased?

-ERD50

Sorry, I assumed you knew some history of the Covid infections in Israel. Since the vaccine rollout started then it brought down the death rate to zero and the death rate has stayed at or about 0 even with the surge in cases. ...]

Thanks, it wasn't the history of the Covid infections in Israel that had me confused, it was the context that I was missing.

So the "death rate hasn't moved" referred to *after* it went down once the first round of vaccination took effect - OK, that makes sense to me.

-ERD50

 

[tmm99]

Does anybody know how high the viral loads of fully vaccinated people can get? I always assumed their viral loads would be smaller/lower than the viral loads of unvaccinated people, as the vaccinated people are, supposedly, killing the virus more actively while being infected, but I haven't seen any definitive studies that say either way...

So far, I'm still cautious. I still double mask in stores although I'm fully vaccinated. The local numbers are getting much better though (single-digit infections from about 60 infections per day just a month ago.) and about 62% of the eligible Canadians (12+) are now fully vaccinated (our county/region - 65% full, 81% one dose so far and it's still going up but slowly...), so I may change some things later on...

 

[audreyh1]

We've both had two Moderna mRNA vaccines, so we're fortunate. But we're wearing masks when indoors with a bunch of strangers, and back to eating outside at restaurants. Knowing about half the population isn't vaccinated, I don't see a downside considering, if it's overkill so what IMO. YMMV

Same here. Most people around here still wear masks in stores and we went back to using our m95s recently with case numbers starting to increase again.

 

[bmcgonig]

Here’s a good Twitter storm from the Chief of Medicine at UCSF. San Francisco is probably the most vaccinated city in US and they’re experiencing quite a large rise in cases.

He’s back to wearing double masks and not dining indoors. One point he has made in the past is not that he’s afraid of severe Covid but rather there is no data on how minor disease/infection might cause long Covid.

Me too. I’m also rethinking going to the gym for the next few weeks until this surge passes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419515389893959683

 

[gattara]

We've both had two Moderna mRNA vaccines, so we're fortunate. But we're wearing masks when indoors with a bunch of strangers, and back to eating outside at restaurants. Knowing about half the population isn't vaccinated, I don't see a downside considering, if it's overkill so what IMO. YMMV

This is how my husband and I feel too. Though we never could talk ourselves into eating indoors. Just couldn't make the leap. It's okay though, we don't miss it.

 

[audreyh1]

I think the one real "newsy" part of the Delta variant that most might not be aware of, is the way symptoms present. Especially for those already vaccinated, it seems to be similar to a head cold.

This! Needs to be understood. Head cold? Might be COVID even if you are vaccinated.

And I think it’s important to be aware that if you are a vaccinated person in a household with an unvaccinated person, including children, who gets infected with the delta variant, breakthrough infections might happen due to the 1000x viral load of the delta infection. Just don’t be surprised if it happens.

Does anybody know how high the viral loads of fully vaccinated people can get.

AFAIK there is no data on the viral load of a vaccinated breakthrough delta variant infection. I hope someone studies it because it’s important to know how contagious someone might be.

The CDC says that fully vaccinated people who experience Covid symptoms — fever or chills, cough and shortness of breath — should isolate themselves, be evaluated for Covid-19 by a doctor or healthcare provider and get tested.

You can also be treated.

 

[Retch The Grate]

Here’s a good Twitter storm from the Chief of Medicine at UCSF. San Francisco is probably the most vaccinated city in US and they’re experiencing quite a large rise in cases.

He’s back to wearing double masks and not dining indoors. One point he has made in the past is not that he’s afraid of severe Covid but rather there is no data on how minor disease/infection might cause long Covid.

Me too. I’m also rethinking going to the gym for the next few weeks until this surge passes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419515389893959683

This is my concern, I'm sticking to my N95s and not dining indoors. But I'm going to gatherings of vaccinated friends and taking some chances, it's a balancing act.

 

[ls99]

CDC approved covid testing change coming

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/...-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
"After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel,"

"CDC recommends clinical laboratories and testing sites that have been using the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR assay select and begin their transition to another FDA-authorized COVID-19 test. CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season."

The implication is that the current Real Time PCR method can not differentiate Covid from Flu.

 

[sengsational]

He’s back to wearing double masks and not dining indoors. One point he has made in the past is not that he’s afraid of severe Covid but rather there is no data on how minor disease/infection might cause long Covid.

The calculus that guides behavior should include all possibilities, and I guess Long Covid in a previously vaccinated person is possible, but how probable? I'd rather see data than align with even a hospital honcho based just on that as a data point. It seems like being vaccinated is protective of severe disease and death to a huge extent, and the cohort that gets worse symptoms are the ones you might expect would have more trouble. The vaccines are probably pretty good at protecting against Long Covid too, because not heard about an asymptomatic case turning into Long Covid. But if a new bug was spreading around the world and I might mistake it for a common cold, and has a tiny fraction of a percent chance of putting me out of commission for a week, well, that new bug probably wouldn't cause me to change my behavior much, if any.

ETA: But I'm going to take a dose of ivermectin before flying down to the Caribbean. Safe, cheap, I already have it...no down-side.

 

[Montecfo]

Except, some healthy young children do die, and others survive with possibly long term damage.

I will wear a mask in the presence of my GC, because in about 6 months, we will know if the vaccine is safe for young children and I don't find 6 months being careful a burden compared to how I'd feel if they caught it and died/crippled for life.

I make them buckle up in the car.
Not because it's a law that's inconvenient, but because there is a very small chance I'll be in a serious car accident.
I have never been in a serious car accident in close to 50 yrs of driving, so I've proven the odds are very small that driving is dangerous.

I do not disagree that some kids can get sick and even die. They did with chicken pox and in car accidents. These are relatively remote risks, except the car accidents.

I wonder if having the kids mask around you would mitigate the risk more effectively?

 

[audreyh1]

I think we’ll be finding out how much tougher this delta variant is on children. So far we know that they can catch it, get sick, and spread it to others, including vaccinated adults in the same household. It’s far from the initial covid virus which didn’t seem to affect children much at all and children didn’t seem to be major spreaders, but since they were kept at home so much last year it’s tough to really know. I think we’ll be learning new lessons and can’t simply rely on the old experiences from the past year.

 

[tb001]

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/...-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
"After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel,"

"CDC recommends clinical laboratories and testing sites that have been using the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR assay select and begin their transition to another FDA-authorized COVID-19 test. CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season."

The implication is that the current Real Time PCR method can not differentiate Covid from Flu.

No. The implication is that they prefer labs to adopt testing that can interrogate a sample for both covid and the flu at once. Most of these tests use the RT-PCR methodology. The newer generations enable you to see if an individual presenting with symptoms has either covid OR the flu and do it in one test instead of two.

As the the OP, we are both fully vaccinated, with young kids who are not eligible for the vaccine. Despite high vaccination rates here, covid rates have surged in the last couple of weeks. About 1/10 of the positives are in previously vaccinated individuals. Those rates are high enough that DH and I are back to masking up indoors and will stick to outside dining for now. Their schools are masked as well.

I’m no longer worried about catching covid, and think the risks from long haul covid are small if vaccinated (though I wish we had more data here), but I worry about passing it along to my children. I know the risks in young kids are small, but the reality is that we don’t know for sure how children are affected longer term. The recent study on lowered IQ in adults post covid is enough to give me pause! I was VERY happy to have a mask free month or two, but it’s just easy enough to put it back on. Not worth the risk, imo.

 

[skyking1]

I wear a mask indoors in public and see no change in that coming soon. When I put on a mask I try to look beyond myself or my unvaccinated nieces and nephews, to the other children and at-risk adults that those children might infect.

 

[Aerides]

No. The implication is that they prefer labs to adopt testing that can interrogate a sample for both covid and the flu at once. Most of these tests use the RT-PCR methodology. The newer generations enable you to see if an individual presenting with symptoms has either covid OR the flu and do it in one test instead of two.

Thank you for this detail. I'll admit the original CDC release was a bit confusing!

 

[Alan]

Thank you for this detail. I'll admit the original CDC release was a bit confusing!

+1

I had no idea they were developing a single test to determine Covid or Flu.

 

[Montecfo]

I think we’ll be finding out how much tougher this delta variant is on children. So far we know that they can catch it, get sick, and spread it to others, including vaccinated adults in the same household. It’s far from the initial covid virus which didn’t seem to affect children much at all and children didn’t seem to be major spreaders, but since they were kept at home so much last year it’s tough to really know. I think we’ll be learning new lessons and can’t simply rely on the old experiences from the past year.

Hard to say. There was a lot of fear around the UK variant. That seems to have subsided.

Stats I just saw said kids account for 16 percent of recent cases, compared to 14 percent overall. Since kids are largely unvaccinated, you would expect them to comprise a higher percentage of new cases. Not sure that suggests any meaningful difference. But it may eventually.

The health authorities still call breakthrough infections "rare". And they are nothing new.

And they say the Delta variant is more transmissible but does not cause more severe illness than prior variants.

We should learn all we can for sure. But we have tended to treat each new variant as a new dread illness, and that has not been found to be the case. Will Delta be meaningfully different? Time will tell.

 

[ncbill]

Won't the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant get us to herd immunity sooner?

 

[Alan]

Won't the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant get us to herd immunity sooner?

It might, but what is herd immunity with Delta, when will infections slow and stop?

The latest figures issued by the ONS in the UK this week shows the presence of Covid antibodies in over 90% of the adult population, and yet we still have very large numbers being infected every day. (Bold mine in the quote below)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...antibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021

In England, it is estimated that around 9 in 10 adults, or 91.9% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 90.5% to 93.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus (COVID-19) - SARS-CoV-2 - on a blood test in the week beginning 28 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Wales, it is estimated that around 9 in 10 adults, or 92.6% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 91.0% to 94.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 28 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Northern Ireland, it is estimated that 9 in 10 adults, or 90.0% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 87.5% to 92.3%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 28 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Scotland, it is estimated that nearly 9 in 10 adults, or 88.6% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 86.7% to 90.3%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 28 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination.

 

[audreyh1]

Won't the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant get us to herd immunity sooner?

It could.

But that hasn’t helped San Francisco which is highly vaccinated - 69% of total population fully vaccinated - and still seeing an outbreak among mostly unvaccinated folks. Herd immunity is supposed to protect unvaccinated folks.

And they are seeing breakthrough cases too.

Bob Wachter @Bob_Wachter
·
Jul 25
What’s particularly noteworthy about @UCSF experience is that it’s in a city w/ the nation’s highest vax rate. And cases are rising fast in our employees, of whom 93% are vaxxed. (Special thanks to Ralph Gonzales, Bob Kosnik &
@saramurrayMD for some of the data.) Here goes3/20)

from

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419515389893959683

shared earlier in this thread

Of course you can’t treat the hospital as independent of the surrounding community.

We don’t really know how elusive herd immunity is. I have a funny feeling that it’s very difficult to reach.

Plus the more contagious the virus, the higher vaccinated + recovered you need to achieve herd immunity.