Delta variant can infect families from exposed children, even vaccinated adults.

[audreyh1]

I think this story is a good example of how I expect delta to play out in the US.

I think we’ll see plenty of breakthrough cases for vaccinated folks within households and getting together for long periods. Sure, the vaccinated adults are well protected against the worst outcomes, but do you really want to be unwittingly spreading covid? Especially via your unvaccinated children?

People don’t seem to realize that if they have a head cold they should get tested for COVID, even if vaccinated. That if a family member has been exposed from a gathering, including unvaccinated children, that they should get tested and perhaps avoid extended family get togethers until they know they aren’t infected. That chances of breakthrough infections across several family members from extended exposure seems to be relatively high.

The illnesses began after Young's daughters attended a summer camp the week before the July 4th weekend.

One of the girls' counselors went home sick early on in the week. It wasn't until Friday that campers and their parents learned she'd tested positive for COVID-19.

By then, it had already been three days, and Young's daughters weren't showing any symptoms, so they went ahead to join extended family at the beach for the holiday.

"We figured, 'OK, even if the kids are sick, we'll all be fine, it'll be fine, we're all vaccinated,'" she said.

All weekend, her three-year-old was "crazy cranky."

"Lots of meltdowns, lots of tantrums, very tired, but no discernible symptoms," she added.

By Monday evening, her six-year-old felt fatigued. She later developed a low-grade fever, headache, runny nose, and some nausea.

Some older adults in the beach house started feeling unwell too, with fatigue, and sore throats.

"There were six [fully] vaccinated adults in the house," Young said. "Four of us felt symptoms."

https://www.businessinsider.com/fully-vaccinated-mom-catches-covid-19-after-kids-summer-camp-2021-7

 

[Alan]

Please note that a modification to the Covid forum rules has been made.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f55/new-area-for-covid-19-topics-readme-102567.html

All new Covid discussions will be approved only after consensus of the Moderator team, to ensure topics are specific to our community, to drive helpful, thoughtful conversations, eg: Travel updates, treatment news.

Many other discussions on Covid quickly turn contentious, divisive, and argumentative, with little value for the ER.org community. Threads discussing vaccine positions, personal risk tolerance, behavior judgments, etc., go downhill very quickly and have proven non-viable for positive interactions.

If you create a new Covid thread, please understand it may be some time for the Mod team to issue a decision on approval.

 

[iloveyoga]

Please note that a modification to the Covid forum rules has been made.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f55/new-area-for-covid-19-topics-readme-102567.html

All new Covid discussions will be approved only after consensus of the Moderator team, to ensure topics are specific to our community, to drive helpful, thoughtful conversations, eg: Travel updates, treatment news.

Many other discussions on Covid quickly turn contentious, divisive, and argumentative, with little value for the ER.org community. Threads discussing vaccine positions, personal risk tolerance, behavior judgments, etc., go downhill very quickly and have proven non-viable for positive interactions.

If you create a new Covid thread, please understand it may be some time for the Mod team to issue a decision on approval.

Thank you for the work you do.

 

[audreyh1]

Thank you for the work you do.

+1

 

[candrew]

DW belongs to an expat FB group here in Oaxaca. Several weeks ago, another member of that FB group who is a U.S. expat, was denied boarding for her flight to the U.S. after testing positive for COVID. She had been fully vaxxed several months earlier and was completely asymptomatic at the time of her test.

 

[Alan]

I think it is well established that fully vaccinated people can still catch and spread Covid.

Below is a good article with some real data from the UK, Israel and Canada

https://www.ft.com/content/0f11b219-0f1b-420e-8188-6651d1e749ff

Phoenix Suns basketball star Chris Paul, UK health secretary Sajid Javid and US Olympic gymnast Kara Eaker have something in common: they have all tested positive for coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated.

No vaccine is 100 per cent effective, so what scientists call “breakthrough infections” were always expected. In most cases, the symptoms are mild.

However, as a new surge in Covid-19 cases has collided with a global vaccination campaign delivering more than 200m shots a week, more people are asking: “How protected am I?”
.
.
.
.

Phase 3 trials for most of the leading Covid-19 jabs showed an efficacy against symptomatic infection of more than 90 per cent. Real-world studies of effectiveness in the UK, Israel and Canada suggest that vaccines are displaying a slightly lower effectiveness outside of the trial environment, probably because of the spread of the more vaccine-resistant Delta variant. Estimates put protection against symptomatic infection, depending on the vaccine, at between 60-90 per cent.

According to Public Health England, about 17 per cent of the 105,598 Delta variant cases reported across England in the four weeks to July 19 were among fully vaccinated people. PHE counts people as fully vaccinated 14 days after their second dose.

Anthony Masters, a member of the UK’s Royal Statistical Society, said fully vaccinated people were likely to make up a “bigger proportion” of cases as vaccine coverage was extended, particularly in younger groups who face a higher exposure risk because of greater social mixing.

“If you get extremely high coverage across the different ages, it’s plausible that cases could become [in] majority among fully vaccinated people,” he said. About 55 per cent of the UK population had received both doses by July 21.

In Israel, where nearly 60 per cent of the population are fully vaccinated and coverage is spread more evenly across age cohorts, 52 per cent of about 6,000 people who tested positive in the week to July 21 were fully vaccinated.

 

[Dtail]

Logically the breakthrough cases among the vaccinated would be less if there were less unvaccinated cases.

 

[ERD50]

Some older adults in the beach house started feeling unwell too, with fatigue, and sore throats.

"There were six [fully] vaccinated adults in the house," Young said. "Four of us felt symptoms."

But I wonder, is all the testing and precautions really a good cost/benefit ratio?

"feeling unwell" is way different than ending up bedridden for days/weeks, or in the hospital or morgue, or having long term lung damage.

I don't have enough data, but this strikes me a bit like those pleas to "get tested for x,y,z condition - it could save your life!", but an analysis shows that for everyone to be tested for x,y,z often enough to catch it in time, might result in more overall negatives than more routine testing/precautions.

I'm fully vaccinated, as are all the adults in my circle, but g-kids are too young, though they aren't out much among the general public either. It's a good thing to be aware of, but I fear it could get blown out of proportion as well.

-ERD50

 

[Alan]

Logically the breakthrough cases among the vaccinated would be less if there were less unvaccinated cases.

I agree, and that is exactly what the article above points out.

So far there does not seem to be a significant number of reinfections among people who have already had Covid but there is evidence that folks who have previously had Covid can still catch it and become spreaders even if they don't get ill.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52446965

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518

Most people who have had Covid-19 are protected from catching it again for at least five months, a study led by Public Health England shows.

Past infection was linked to around a 83% lower risk of getting the virus, compared with those who had never had Covid-19, scientists found.

But experts warn some people do catch Covid-19 again - and can infect others.

And officials stress people should follow the stay-at-home rules - whether or not they have had the virus.

'Save lives'
Prof Susan Hopkins, who led the study, said the results were encouraging, suggesting immunity lasted longer than some people feared, but protection was by no means absolute.

It was particularly concerning some of those reinfected had high levels of the virus - even without symptoms - and were at risk of passing it on to others, she said.

 

[Aerides]

But I wonder, is all the testing and precautions really a good cost/benefit ratio?

"feeling unwell" is way different than ending up bedridden for days/weeks, or in the hospital or morgue, or having long term lung damage.

I don't have enough data, but this strikes me a bit like those pleas to "get tested for x,y,z condition - it could save your life!",

I think I still want to know, not for saving my life, but to reduce my interaction with others, and therefore their risk. If I have a sniffle, and get a positive test, I will stay home even if I feel fine. No grocery store, no visit with my parents, etc. (and for longer than I would were it truly just a cold - ie, isolate for a week or so).

 

[ERD50]

I think it is well established that fully vaccinated people can still catch and spread Covid.

Below is a good article with some real data from the UK, Israel and Canada

https://www.ft.com/content/0f11b219-0f1b-420e-8188-6651d1e749ff

In Israel, where nearly 60 per cent of the population are fully vaccinated and coverage is spread more evenly across age cohorts, 52 per cent of about 6,000 people who tested positive in the week to July 21 were fully vaccinated.

What is this saying? If the 6,000 were a representative sample (and we don't know that, unless there is more info in the article), then it would seem the vaccine is not very effective at all (far less than the ~80~95% reported)? If the vaccine did nothing, we'd expect 60% of those vaccinated to be in the positive test group. It was just slightly less at 52%.

But what's not mentioned (at least in your quoted portion) is if the vaccinated had far milder symptoms than the un-vaccinated, and/or were less likely to spread it to others. That would be a positive for the vaccine, even if the raw % doesn't seem very good.


-ERD50

 

[Alan]

But I wonder, is all the testing and precautions really a good cost/benefit ratio?

"feeling unwell" is way different than ending up bedridden for days/weeks, or in the hospital or morgue, or having long term lung damage.

I don't have enough data, but this strikes me a bit like those pleas to "get tested for x,y,z condition - it could save your life!", but an analysis shows that for everyone to be tested for x,y,z often enough to catch it in time, might result in more overall negatives than more routine testing/precautions.

I'm fully vaccinated, as are all the adults in my circle, but g-kids are too young, though they aren't out much among the general public either. It's a good thing to be aware of, but I fear it could get blown out of proportion as well.

-ERD50

The benefit of testing when you feel ill is that you can still spread the disease even when fully vaccinated so you are potentially protecting others in your sphere. The cost of a home lateral flow test is pennies and only takes a few minutes. The cost of unknowingly spreading it to people who then spread it to others who get really sick is much higher.

 

[Sojourner]

From what I've heard and read, the mRNA vaccines are roughly 88% effective against the Delta variant in preventing symptomatic illness. And, of course, they're even more effective against severe illness and death. As a fully vaccinated person, I have to say I feel pretty comfortable spending time with young kids and being out in public doing things like shopping, eating at restaurants, etc. I was extremely careful with masking and distancing in the pre-vaccination era, but now I just feel like "life must go on". Obviously, that is subject to change if a new variant emerges that is much worse than Delta. But for now, due primarily to the highly-effective vaccines and also to "pandemic fatigue", I am not making any major changes to my behaviors.

 

[Alan]

What is this saying? If the 6,000 were a representative sample (and we don't know that, unless there is more info in the article), then it would seem the vaccine is not very effective at all (far less than the ~80~95% reported)? If the vaccine did nothing, we'd expect 60% of those vaccinated to be in the positive test group. It was just slightly less at 52%.

But what's not mentioned (at least in your quoted portion) is if the vaccinated had far milder symptoms than the un-vaccinated, and/or were less likely to spread it to others. That would be a positive for the vaccine, even if the raw % doesn't seem very good.


-ERD50

The death rate in Israel has barely moved, we are talking about infections, so yes, the vaccines are working to reduce serious illness.

The vaccines are not 100% effective so if the entire population was vaccinated, 100% of infections would be among the vaccinated. Unless a country closes its borders completely then there is going to be ongoing exposure to the virus.

 

[ERD50]

I think I still want to know, not for saving my life, but to reduce my interaction with others, and therefore their risk. If I have a sniffle, and get a positive test, I will stay home even if I feel fine. No grocery store, no visit with my parents, etc. (and for longer than I would were it truly just a cold - ie, isolate for a week or so).

OK, good point. Though I'd probably take those precautions anyway, I wouldn't want to pass a common cold or flu to others either, let's not forget the numbers that die from non-COVID flu.

... It was particularly concerning some of those reinfected had high levels of the virus - even without symptoms - and were at risk of passing it on to others, she said. ...

I get so frustrated with so called "journalism". How many is "some"? Is it 50%, 1%? 0.0001%?

And what is "at risk"? Anything is possible. Without some level of perspective here, we have no idea what this means.

I could say we are all "at risk" of a brake failure on our cars, at any time, and that's true. So does that mean we should not pull out of our driveway without having a certified mechanic inspect our car, each and every time we run an errand? We just don't know what level of concern we are talking about.

This kind of reporting sort of feeds the conspiracy theory types. The vagueness can be interpreted as trying to hide something. It does a disservice to all of us who are truly concerned and want to the right thing.

-ERD50

 

[Sojourner]

The death rate in Israel has barely moved, we are talking about infections, so yes, the vaccines are working to reduce serious illness.

The vaccines are not 100% effective so if the entire population was vaccinated, 100% of infections would be among the vaccinated. Unless a country closes its borders completely then there is going to be ongoing exposure to the virus.

+1

I have heard that 99% of deaths in the U.S. from COVID in recent months are among the unvaccinated (or partially vaccinated).

 

[ERD50]

.... The vaccines are not 100% effective so if the entire population was vaccinated, 100% of infections would be among the vaccinated. ....

Exactly. This is why I'm confused - they say 60% are vaccinated, but 52% of those who tested positive are vaccinated. That's not much less than the 60% we'd expect if the vaccine was totally ineffective (and I don't believe that the vaccine is ineffective, that's why I'm confused). Or is the test ineffective (I don't think that's true either)?

The death rate in Israel has barely moved, we are talking about infections, so yes, the vaccines are working to reduce serious illness. ....

Confused again (sorry!). If the death rate hasn't moved, what leads to the vaccine being effective in reducing serious illness? Wouldn't we expect to see a decrease in deaths as vaccinations increased?

-ERD50

 

[Montecfo]

I think if you feel unwell, it is wise to avoid interactions with others This is common sense, same as if you have or suspect you have cold or flu.

Similarly, if we have a flu epidemic, you would maintain distance from people even if vaccinated against it.

As far as asymptomatic people spreading, I am not sure what the fix is to this, except getting tests at intervals. I think this could make sense for people regularly exposed to high risk people such as our elders etc.

 

[audreyh1]

I would get tested, as I would want to know for several reasons. One of which is opting for treatment if I experienced symptoms. Disneysteve pointed out that MAB treatments are recommended for infected vaccinated people as well, and recommends it to his patients. Vacations4us was offered MAB treatment along with her unvaccinated husband.

Disneysteve has shared that he has seen quite a few breakthrough infections.

 

[Alan]

Confused again (sorry!). If the death rate hasn't moved, what leads to the vaccine being effective in reducing serious illness? Wouldn't we expect to see a decrease in deaths as vaccinations increased?

-ERD50

Sorry, I assumed you knew some history of the Covid infections in Israel. Since the vaccine rollout started then it brought down the death rate to zero and the death rate has stayed at or about 0 even with the surge in cases. I don’t have the hospitalizations data to hand, but for the UK I can show you data where the hospitalizations have stayed extremely low compared to what they were when the infection rate was at similar levels a few months ago

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

 

[Dtail]

From what I've heard and read, the mRNA vaccines are roughly 88% effective against the Delta variant in preventing symptomatic illness. And, of course, they're even more effective against severe illness and death. As a fully vaccinated person, I have to say I feel pretty comfortable spending time with young kids and being out in public doing things like shopping, eating at restaurants, etc. I was extremely careful with masking and distancing in the pre-vaccination era, but now I just feel like "life must go on". Obviously, that is subject to change if a new variant emerges that is much worse than Delta. But for now, due primarily to the highly-effective vaccines and also to "pandemic fatigue", I am not making any major changes to my behaviors.

Exactly my situation (for now).

 

[Alan]

From what I've heard and read, the mRNA vaccines are roughly 88% effective against the Delta variant in preventing symptomatic illness. And, of course, they're even more effective against severe illness and death. As a fully vaccinated person, I have to say I feel pretty comfortable spending time with young kids and being out in public doing things like shopping, eating at restaurants, etc. I was extremely careful with masking and distancing in the pre-vaccination era, but now I just feel like "life must go on". Obviously, that is subject to change if a new variant emerges that is much worse than Delta. But for now, due primarily to the highly-effective vaccines and also to "pandemic fatigue", I am not making any major changes to my behaviors.

Same here, I’m even riding buses again.

 

[pacergal]

We are vaccinated, yet still wearing masks when out. I have two DGK who are too young to be receive Covid shots yet, and I do not want to risk passing it to them if I were to test positive. The Delta variant is so much more transmissible.

 

[Aerides]

I think the one real "newsy" part of the Delta variant that most might not be aware of, is the way symptoms present. Especially for those already vaccinated, it seems to be similar to a head cold. OG Covid most definitely wasn't, it was a cough, lungs, etc. Not sniffles and stuffiness (mosts, exceptions, 80/20 rule, etc.)

So someone not immersed in the news might get a cold and think little of it. My sister actually had a cold a couple of weeks ago, which started the day after our last visit. She thought nothing of it at the time, other than cancelling a visit with our parents that weekend as a precaution - something we always do anyway.

No idea if she actually had Delta now, or if she passed it to me as it was incubating and I had a no symptom case? But, point being, a cold might not just be a cold.

 

[Montecfo]

We are vaccinated, yet still wearing masks when out. I have two DGK who are too young to be receive Covid shots yet, and I do not want to risk passing it to them if I were to test positive. The Delta variant is so much more transmissible.

I am not sure how much a worry this would be for me. Covid is not particularly dangerous for the young, and I might want mine exposed at young, healthy age.

Not dissimilar to chicken pox in that sense