Delta variant can infect families from exposed children, even vaccinated adults.

[sengsational]

I remember, early in the pandemic, several different doctors and virologists saying that the tendency is for viruses to drift, genetically, toward more transmissible and less severe symptoms. That made and makes sense... you are less incapacitated so you spread that variant. This seems to be what came to pass. Something different probably would have happened if large portions of people weren't vaccinated. Biology is frustratingly messy.

 

[audreyh1]

Unfortunately we haven’t gotten the less virulent versions so far, just way more contagious ones.

The fact that someone is contagious well before coming down with symptoms kind of throws a wrench in that “check” on the virus idea, because you aren’t initially incapacitated.

Supposedly with delta individuals are contagious even sooner! But they also show symptoms sooner.

The answers quickly became clear: People infected with the Delta variant were getting sick much faster after being exposed. They had viral loads more than 1,000 times higher at that point, meaning they were much more likely to spread the illness to others. This also meant they were becoming infectious earlier and more quickly.

Looking only at cases for which they could determine the exact time of exposure, researchers found that the time interval from exposure to positive PCR test ranged from three to five days, with a peak at 3.71 days. In contrast, data from the 2020 outbreak showed that it took an average of six days from exposure to positive test with a range of five to eight days and a peak at 5.61.

Not only were Delta-infected individuals testing positive two days earlier, on average, they were also way more infectious by the time their infections were detectible. And by “way more infectious,” we’re talking about viral loads that were an average of 1,260 times higher than those observed in individuals infected with the original strain of the virus.

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/07/are-things-different-delta

 

[Aerides]

I remember, early in the pandemic, several different doctors and virologists saying that the tendency is for viruses to drift, genetically, toward more transmissible and less severe symptoms. That made and makes sense... you are less incapacitated so you spread that variant. This seems to be what came to pass. Something different probably would have happened if large portions of people weren't vaccinated. Biology is frustratingly messy.

It seems that the Delta is a higher R (6 vs. 3.8?), but the jury is out on its danger level. From what I've read, it's no less severe in the non-vaccinated that catch it, but it's hard to measure because the very elderly population has a high rate of vaccine protection. That's why we're seeing the younger folks getting sick more with Delta because their vaccination rate is lower. Hospitals are still dealing with plenty of patients so I don't think it's getting less severe at this point.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

...One point he has made in the past is not that he’s afraid of severe Covid but rather there is no data on how minor disease/infection might cause long Covid...

That has been my concern from day 1. We don't know what we don't know. Yes, it is true that our understanding has come a very long way in the last 18 months but we also don't know what may come of those that have had COVID (and which strain? Will that matter?) in 2,5, 20 years. I really wish those that have been so hesitant to getting vaccinated would think about that.

 

[sengsational]

The "R" is not an attribute of the virus, it's an attribute of the population, culture, rules, along with the virus (messy). So the ease with which the virus spreads includes a lot of people who have enough immunity to not get too sick to stay home.

 

[skyking1]

I think Delta moved the needle on how long an infected person is protected. It was about 5 months, but now I have heard of a couple of cases of folks who got it again just recently. Presumably the new infection is Delta.

 

[ls99]

Thank you for this detail. I'll admit the original CDC release was a bit confusing!

+2

 

[Chuckanut]

Won't the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant get us to herd immunity sooner?

The problem is that herd immunity never worked very well with things like small pox and polio. It was the vaccine that vanquished them and allowed us to go on with our lives not giving a thought to these terrible diseases. Herd immunity is certainly better than nothing, but it took the vaccine to rid of of these and many other diseases.

Interestingly, vaccines for small pox have been around since the 1700's. Benjamin Franklin wrote a moving piece in which he stated his regret for not immunizing his very young son. The boy died at age 4 from small pox.

A simpler and wiser risk calculus was offered by Benjamin Franklin in his “Autobiography”: “In 1736 I lost one of my sons a fine Boy of 4 years old, by the Small Pox. . . . I long regretted bitterly & still regret that I had not given it to him by Inoculation; This I mention for the Sake of Parents, who omit that Operation on the Supposition that they should never forgive themselves if a Child died under it; my Example showing that the Regret may be the same either way; and that therefore the safer should be chosen.”

 

[jimbee]

From what I can find, the first smallpox vaccine was introduced in 1796, six years after Benjamin Franklin died. Maybe I misinterpreted the quotation, and he just meant direct smallpox inoculation.\

Ah, here is more background on the B. Franklin story regarding smallpox. Interesting.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2653186/

 

[Alan]

Even incredibly fit people can catch Covid more than once, and in olympic champion Tom Dean's case, this 2nd and much more serious illness was about the time Delta appeared on the scene in England, but I don't know if his 2nd infection was Delta or not.


https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-27...y-covid-to-winning-olympic-gold-in-six-months

Just six months ago, Tom Dean, a remarkably fit professional athlete, couldn't walk up the stairs without wheezing .

The 21-year-old swimmer had contracted coronavirus for a second time, but in this instance, his symptoms were much more concerning.

“I had six or seven weeks out during an Olympic year which is essentially unheard of,” he said.

“When I was sitting in my flat in isolation, Olympic gold seemed like a million miles off."

 

[ERD50]

That has been my concern from day 1. We don't know what we don't know. Yes, it is true that our understanding has come a very long way in the last 18 months but we also don't know what may come of those that have had COVID (and which strain? Will that matter?) in 2,5, 20 years. I really wish those that have been so hesitant to getting vaccinated would think about that.

Not to defend the anti-vaxers (I'm fully vaccinated, as is all of my extended family that is of age), but just to understand their view, I think some of them fear the same thing you do - what is the effect of the vaccine in 2, 5, 20 years?

In the early times of polio vaccinations, there was a case of a group that got a bad batch and developed polio from it. Now of course, we've come a long way in understanding and processing these vaccines, but the virus has come a long way too, possibly creating new challenges for the vaccine safety?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1383764/

In April 1955 more than 200 000 children in five Western and mid-Western USA states received a polio vaccine in which the process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. ... Subsequent investigations revealed that the vaccine ..., had caused 40 000 cases of polio, leaving 200 children with varying degrees of paralysis and killing 10.

Again, not defending anti-vaxers, but I think it is important to try to understand their stance (rather than ridicule as some do - and I am *not* accusing you of that), so that we can better deal with their fears (and of course, there will always be some irrational ones out there - that's life).

-ERD50

 

[RAE]

I think we still have a whole lot to learn about the SARS-COV-2 virus and its variants. I also think we have more to learn about how natural immunity (among those who have already had COVID) may play a bigger role in all this than you usually hear about.

Here is an interesting recent article by Dr. Robert Kaplan, who works at Stanford Medical's Research Center. He talks about the role natural immunity may have played in the initial decline of COVID cases around the country. He believes that it is still important to get the vaccine, but thinks we may have underestimated the role of natural immunity in all of this. He provides some data to back up his argument.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/12...ll-need-jabs-finish-the-job/?utm_campaign=rss

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Not to defend the anti-vaxers (I'm fully vaccinated, as is all of my extended family that is of age), but just to understand their view, I think some of them fear the same thing you do - what is the effect of the vaccine in 2, 5, 20 years?

In the early times of polio vaccinations, there was a case of a group that got a bad batch and developed polio from it. Now of course, we've come a long way in understanding and processing these vaccines, but the virus has come a long way too, possibly creating new challenges for the vaccine safety?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1383764/



Again, not defending anti-vaxers, but I think it is important to try to understand their stance (rather than ridicule as some do - and I am *not* accusing you of that), so that we can better deal with their fears (and of course, there will always be some irrational ones out there - that's life).

-ERD50

No, I totally get it. I was in the cohort of Air Force folks that were mandated to get the Anthrax series of shots given in a way that did not comport with FDA guidelines and as a result, a LOT of my flying brothers and sisters got pretty sick. If I were a betting man, I think the depth of the problem will present itself in coming years much like Agent Orange did (or the burn pits in the Middle East). There is ample info on the web about this issue so I won't get in depth, but I can relate to some who are hesitant.

Nonetheless, I think [-]most[/-] a lot of the hesitancy is a political statement and not one grounded in science (overly general statement? Perhaps, but I don't think I am too far off the mark).

As someone mentioned in this (or related) thread, CBS Evening News interviewed a hospitalized patient who had refused the vaccine due to it being used under the EUA yet was getting treatments that were also being used under the EUA. I think that is where the media is failing people; they should be telling people that YES, the vaccine is EUA but if you are hospitalized, it's quite likely that your treatment (and/or meds) will be under a EUA as well.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

And now this... https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/27/cdc...lly-vaccinated-people-in-covid-hot-spots.html

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to recommend Tuesday that fully vaccinated people begin wearing masks indoors again in places with high Covid-19 transmission rates, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

[MichaelB]

<mod note> Discussion of vaccine hesitancy contributed to the most recent covid thread being closed. Let’s please not get into it again.

 

[Chuckanut]

From what I can find, the first smallpox vaccine was introduced in 1796, six years after Benjamin Franklin died. Maybe I misinterpreted the quotation, and he just meant direct smallpox inoculation.\

Ah, here is more background on the B. Franklin story regarding smallpox. Interesting.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2653186/

My bad. Jimbee. You are correct.

It's not a vaccine, it's something called variolation which uses puss from small pox victims. This site explains it far better than I can. It's somewhat off topic, but I think it's an interesting story in the fight to prevent various infectious diseases. Jenner carried variolation one step further using the much less dangerous cow pox to protect against the more lethal small pox. I guess that's when it became more like today's vaccination. It took a good 200 years of progress to eventually wipe small pox from the face of the Earth.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/

However, the most successful way of combating smallpox before the discovery of vaccination was inoculation. The word is derived from the Latin inoculare, meaning “to graft.” Inoculation referred to the subcutaneous instillation of smallpox virus into nonimmune individuals. The inoculator usually used a lancet wet with fresh matter taken from a ripe pustule of some person who suffered from smallpox.

Variolation came to Europe at the beginning of the 18th century with the arrival of travelers from Istanbul. In 1714, the Royal Society of London received a letter from Emanuel Timoni describing the technique of variolation, which he had witnessed in Istanbul. A similar letter was sent by Giacomo Pilarino in 1716. These reports described the practice of subcutaneous inoculation; however, they did not change the ways of the conservative English physicians.

Apparently, they did their version of group testing just as we do today. Though I dare say the idea of testing it on orphaned children would not be acceptable today.

Charles Maitland was then granted the royal license to perform a trial of variolation on six prisoners in Newgate on August 9, 1721. The prisoners were granted the king's favor if they submitted to this experiment. Several court physicians, members of the Royal Society, and members of the College of Physicians observed the trial. All prisoners survived the experiment, and those exposed to smallpox later proved to be immune. In the months following this very first trial, Maitland repeated the experiment on orphaned children, again with success. Finally, on April 17, 1722, Maitland successfully treated the two daughters of the Princess of Wales. Not surprisingly, the procedure gained general acceptance after this last success.

Note: I looked in a mirror after writing this and can barely make out what might be left of my small pox vaccination scar.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

<mod note> Discussion of vaccine hesitancy contributed to the most recent covid thread being closed. Let’s please not get into it again.

Wilco!

 

[ERD50]

<mod note> Discussion of vaccine hesitancy contributed to the most recent covid thread being closed. Let’s please not get into it again.

Oooops! Sorry! I haven't followed many of the other threads. Will cease and desist - no problem! Carry on!

-ERD50

 

[jimbee]

My bad. Jimbee. You are correct.

It's not a vaccine, it's something call variolation which uses puss from small pox victims. This site explains it far better than I can. It's somewhat off topic, but I think it's an interesting story in the fight to prevent various infectious diseases. Jenner carried variolation one step further using the much less dangerous cow pox to protect against the more lethal small pox. I guess that's when it became more like today's vaccination. It took a good 200 years of progress to eventually wipe small pox from the face of the Earth.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/

Apparently, they did their version of group testing just as we do today. Though I dare say the idea of testing it on orphaned children would not be acceptable today.

Note: I looked in a mirror after writing this and can barely make out what might be left of my small pox vaccination scar.

Very interesting article, thanks Chuckanut! And my smallpox vaccine scar has all but disappeared too.

 

[retire-early]

As someone mentioned in this (or related) thread, CBS Evening News interviewed a hospitalized patient who had refused the vaccine due to it being used under the EUA yet was getting treatments that were also being used under the EUA. I think that is where the media is failing people; they should be telling people that YES, the vaccine is EUA but if you are hospitalized, it's quite likely that your treatment (and/or meds) will be under a EUA as well.

I was the person who saw that video on Youtube a few days ago.

The media should do a better job of telling people what are EUA treatments are being used.
Let's get real about what treatments is effective once you are hospitalized. Effective being defined that if it is done, the patient is guaranteed to survive 80% of the time.
Or is it just a crapshoot and they throw the kitchen sink at it and hope something sticks. In essence the patient is being a guinea pig.
How do they feel about being one?

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I was the person who saw that video on Youtube a few days ago.

The media should do a better job of telling people what are EUA treatments are being used.
Let's get real about what treatments is effective once you are hospitalized. Effective being defined that if it is done, the patient is guaranteed to survive 80% of the time.
Or is it just a crapshoot and they throw the kitchen sink at it and hope something sticks. In essence the patient is being a guinea pig.
How do they feel about being one?

I would guess as their breathing becomes more and more labored, they become more willing to be a "guinea pig."

A fella I used to fly with got pretty sick and had refused the vaccine. He (and later his family) was posting on Facebook what they were doing to treat him and some of it sounded like it stuff covered under the expansive EUA protocol. Sadly, he is no longer with us.

 

[Montecfo]

<mod note> Discussion of vaccine hesitancy contributed to the most recent covid thread being closed. Let’s please not get into it again.

If I may add, I think the topic is less a problem than making statements with no real factual underpinning, or none presented.

Example:

"I think XYZ is true about vaccines"

Might seem like a challenge if you do not share the opinion.

But what about:

" According the this recent scientific study, qrzw is true of vaccines".

Most of us I think want to learn and the latter provides opportunity in my view. The former does not.

 

[Katsmeow]

My friend's (fully vaccinated) grandson had an injury recently and his Dad took him to the hospital. Hospital did routine Covid tests. Both of them were positive. The Dad was fully vaccinated and had previously had a minor cough (that had dissipated). The grandson is too young to be vaccinated and had no symptoms. The Dad's parents were also positive (fully vaccinated, not seriously ill). Another vaccinated person the child was in regular contact with was also positive (but not sure if that is how he got it). My friend and her husband had no symptoms but did get tested and were negative. The child never had any symptoms at all. It is important to note that none of the vaccinated people were ever seriously ill at all even though some were older in higher risk categories. I don't think it will ever be known who infected whom.

 

[gattara]

My friend (fully vaccinated) grandson had an injury recently and his Dad took him to the hospital. Hospital did routine Covid tests. Both of them were positive. The Dad was fully vaccinated and had previously had a minor cough (that had dissipated). The grandson is too young to be vaccinated and had no symptoms. The Dad's parents were also positive (fully vaccinated, not seriously ill). Another vaccinated person the child was in regular contact with was also positive (but not sure if that is how he got it). My friend and her husband had no symptoms but did get tested and were negative. The child never had any symptoms at all. It is important to note that none of the vaccinated people were ever seriously ill at all even though some were older in higher risk categories. I don't think it will ever be known who infected whom.

Wow, it is surprising to me to hear of this many breakthrough infections (4) in such a scenario. Also amazing - if the child had not been injured, it sounds like none of these folks would have known they tested positive.

 

[audreyh1]

One reason I started this thread is because with Delta I don’t think we should be surprised by breakthrough infections anymore. I wish the CDC were tracking all breakthroughs reported from test results, not just the hospitalized ones.

Someone here had to cancel an international trip recently because his vaccinated wife tested positive from their pre-flight test, although he didn’t, and they wouldn’t have been able to layover at the London airport.