Delta variant can infect families from exposed children, even vaccinated adults.

[tmm99]

Thanks! I was looking for that. I can’t get behind the paywall and I couldn’t find it in the Apple News app yet.

I did find a NYTimes article that seems to be breaking the same story, although it doesn’t include the above points. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/health/cdc-masks-vaccinated-transmission.html

According to the reporter

I happened to subscribe to The Washington Post, so I can read this article, but when I don't have subscriptions to read other articles at other sites, I use my Chrome browser, go to the article link, and do "select all" and "copy" (you have to do this rather quickly (before the "subscribe to xyz" window pops up) and paste the copy into something, like a Word doc or an email or something. It loses the format, etc, but the writings are still intact. This method works most of the time...

Not that I'm suggesting you do this...

 

[RAE]

As far as exactly why CDC changed their guidance, they have not provided any data I can find supporting this. Perhaps you have found that in your research and can share it.

Here is a link to the paper that apparently caused the CDC to change their guidance on vaccinated people wearing masks, and the abstract from the paper:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3

Abstract

Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
________________________________________________________________

and here are a couple of key statements from the Discussion section:

"a counterintuitive result of our analysis is that the highest risk of resistant strain establishment occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled."

"Finally, while our model formally considers only one homogenous population, our data also suggest that delays in vaccination in some countries relative to others will make the global emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain more likely. Without global coordination, vaccine resistant strains may be eliminated in some populations but could persist in others. Thus, a truly global vaccination effort may be necessary to reduce the chances of a global spread of a resistant strain."
_________________________________________________________

The bottom line is that we will probably all be wearing masks and doing social distancing for a very long time to come. Even if the USA could get to something like 80-90% of the population vaccinated (which is highly unlikely), the virus will continue to mutate here, and develop resistant strains which are capable of infecting everyone, including those vaccinated. And.....even worse news is that even if the USA does somehow get almost everyone vaccinated, the virus will continue to mutate and develop vaccine-resistant strains in other parts of the world, unless we have a truly global vaccination effort.

 

[Montecfo]

So this was all based on modelling. I thought it would be studies involving people on the real world.

Is this really all they put out?

I notice they keep calling these breakthrough infections "rare".

 

[RAE]

So this was all based on modelling. I thought it would be studies involving people on the real world.

Is this really all they put out?

I notice they keep calling these breakthrough infections "rare".

Not just modeling, no. Here is more evidence of the ability of the Delta variant to infect vaccinated people that influenced CDC:


https://www.metro.us/most-covid-19-cases-in/

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t think it was based on that study. There are a set of leaked CDC slides with numerous studies cited.

Washington Post shares them here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/cont...ections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/

And the story/overview WAPO broke yesterday is now available to the public. A link to that is provided in the above link.

 

[Alan]

Real world data in the UK shows that many people currently in hospital have been fully vaccinated.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-vaccines-are-failing?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

On Thursday, the vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, said the vaccine programme had prevented an estimated 52,000 hospitalisations.

So why will the majority of those in hospital with Covid be double jabbed? There are several factors at work. First of all, who has and has not been vaccinated matters. Across the UK about 30% of adults are not fully vaccinated. While some are vulnerable people who for some reason have not been jabbed, the majority are young, and healthy enough not to be considered at particular risk: these are people who would very rarely get sick enough with Covid-19 to need hospital care.

Looked at another way, the 70% of the population that has been doubled jabbed include the most vulnerable in society. Because the vaccines are not perfect even a small percentage of what scientists call “breakthrough infections” can lead to a large number of hospitalisations – predominantly in this older group.

The total number of Covid hospitalisations will be dramatically lower than in a world without vaccines, but those who are admitted are increasingly likely to have had both shots.

“Imagine if all adults had already been fully vaccinated,” says Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University. “We know there would still be some hospitalisations, because the vaccines aren’t perfect, but for adults all those hospitalisations would be in vaccinated people. That wouldn’t mean the vaccines don’t help, just that they don’t provide perfect protection – and nobody ever said that they did.”

 

[Chuckanut]

I don’t think it was based on that study. There are a set of leaked CDC slides with numerous studies cited.

Washington Post shares them here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/cont...ections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/

Why is leaked information considered more valid that information freely disseminated from knowledgeable sources.? This seems suspicious to me. And I am not one for conspiracies, but, something tells me this leak is well time to break down vaccine resistance in the population.

And it makes want to lie to the druggist to get a 3rd 'booster' shot before there is a run on them.

 

[Gumby]

Real world data in the UK shows that many people currently in hospital have been fully vaccinated.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-vaccines-are-failing?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Your last quoted paragraph is the key, IMO.

 

[Montecfo]

Looking at the new study most cited from Cape Cod. It is very small and the key question which is unanswered is whether asymptomatic vaccinated people can transmit. In fact the transmission piece on general is left open.

If you are sick coughing etc common sense would dictate distancing. Having everyone mask without knowing if vaccinated people can transmit is is a concern. Covid is overwhelmingly a disease of the unvaccinated. Anything which causes vaccine hesitancy should be avoided.

And I would like to see more effort to respond to unvaccinated people's questions and concerns. How about a series of town halls, campaign style, with working epidemiologists and subject matter doctors from outside of government responding to questions?

I think that type of thing is what we need to be spending bandwidth on, to deliver more value and safety to Americans.

 

[audreyh1]

Why is leaked information considered more valid that information freely disseminated from knowledgeable sources.?

Because the CDC made these slides? Because they were internally circulated within the CDC, and prompted a sudden change in CDC recommendations. Because the CDC hasn’t otherwise shared additional info backing their change?

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Why is leaked information considered more valid that information freely disseminated from knowledgeable sources.? This seems suspicious to me. And I am not one for conspiracies, but, something tells me this leak is well time to break down vaccine resistance in the population.

And it makes want to lie to the druggist to get a 3rd 'booster' shot before there is a run on them.

Well, to be fair...the CDC has acknowledged it and has not pushed back on the "leak" so I think it's pretty accurate. Perhaps this is good as I have seen some reports that there is a boost in vaccines.

But, I am with you. I have been on the fence about trying to score a 3rd shot and this just convinces me more that I might do just that.

 

[Alan]

The death rate in Israel has barely moved, we are talking about infections, so yes, the vaccines are working to reduce serious illness.

The vaccines are not 100% effective so if the entire population was vaccinated, 100% of infections would be among the vaccinated. Unless a country closes its borders completely then there is going to be ongoing exposure to the virus.

Your last quoted paragraph is the key, IMO.

I said the same myself earlier in the thread, but I’m just a retired engineer who came to that conclusion. I figured an emeritus professor of applied statistics might carry more weight.

 

[harllee]

For those of you trying to get a third shot of the vaccine, let us know if you were able to get one, how you were able to get it and which one you got, and what side effects, if any, you had. My DH (immune compromised) would really appreciate this info.

 

[ivinsfan]

For those of you trying to get a third shot of the vaccine, let us know if you were able to get one, how you were able to get it and which one you got, and what side effects, if any, you had. My DH (immune compromised) would really appreciate this info.

You have been waiting for this to happen for a long time. Maybe Delta with help speed up the process...fingers crossed.

 

[frayne]

We’re still on the lower end of the learning curve so there’s no way to really predict what comes next, but IMO it’s folly to let down our guard now.

+1 in spades to the tenth power.

 

[Gumby]

I said the same myself earlier in the thread, but I’m just a retired engineer who came to that conclusion. I figured an emeritus professor of applied statistics might carry more weight.

Not with me. I have always found your analyses to be sound.

I have been mulling over the issue as well, and I think the following hypothetical nicely captures the difficulty in reporting the risk:

Suppose there are only 102 people on an island, 101 of whom are in a small enclosed non-ventilated space. Of those people, 100 are fully vaccinated and 1 is unvaccinated. There is still 1 person left outside. He has COVID. Suddenly, he enters the room and talks, laughs, shakes hands, hugs and kisses all of the other people, exposing all of them equally to COVID. The 1 unvaccinated person gets infected and so does 1 of the vaccinated people.

Now, you could report that 50% of the new infections were among the vaccinated. How alarming! While that would be true, however, it would be greatly misleading on the question of the susceptibility of vaccinated people to infection, which is only 1% in this hypothetical.

It would be most helpful if we could have a statistical measure that takes into account the relative population of vaccinated versus unvaccinated and is an unambiguous indicator of the risk to the unvaccinated, so that we could respond logically rather than emotionally. I do not yet know what that measure might be, but I continue to think about it.

 

[harllee]

You have been waiting for this to happen for a long time. Maybe Delta with help speed up the process...fingers crossed.

Yes, Delta has pretty much brought our social lives to a halt since DH's doctor said he has to assume the vaccinations were only about 50% effective for him. Studies of people with DH's condition indicate that a third shot will improve the effectiveness of the vaccine for him. Frankly, if I were in DH's shoes I would get the booster shot now by hook or crook. I would go to every vaccine distribution place in town and see if I could get the third shot even if I had to fib to get it. DH is more cautious and wants to wait for FDA approval.

 

[tmm99]

For those of you trying to get a third shot of the vaccine, let us know if you were able to get one, how you were able to get it and which one you got, and what side effects, if any, you had. My DH (immune compromised) would really appreciate this info.

One guy in an ABC news video just yesterday (or the day before) said his family doctor got him the 3rd shot. He's immunocompromised and he had no antibodies present after his first two Moderna shot. His doctor recommended a third shot. I think he said he was given J&J as his 3rd, and now he has antibodies present and he's happy (I think he said he experienced no major side effects.) You may still be able to find the video.... I don't think it said which state, but maybe your DH's family doctor has a way?

https://abcnews.go.com/

Also, there are trials you may want to look into. I know some trial(s) are going on in Canada and some people have been getting the booster shots.

 

[Chuckanut]

I heard a short interview with Dr Gottlieb. He thinks we are vastly underestimating the spread of Delta, maybe only 1 in 10 infections are actually getting reported. Since most are young with mild or no symptoms, the medical system does not see them. He also thinks we should be gearing up for booster shots for older and more vulnerable people now. I have found him to be rather accurate in his predictions, but also remember he is on the Board of Pfizer.

 

[Alan]

Just watching the 10pm BBC TV news now, and Delta has meant increasing numbers of pregnant women being hospitalized. Pregnant women are now being offered and encouraged to have the vaccine while at their regular checkups as it protects both mother and baby.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58014779

England's chief midwife has stepped up her call for pregnant women to get the Covid jab as soon as possible.

Estimates based on GP records and Public Health England data suggest hundreds of thousands have not had the jab, as the number of mums-to-be in hospital with the virus rises.

Other data suggests the Delta variant increases the chance of severe disease.
In the last three months, 171 pregnant women with Covid needed hospital care - but none had had both jabs.

In a letter to midwives, obstetricians and GP practices, chief midwife for England Jacqueline Dunkley-Bent says all healthcare professionals have "a responsibility to proactively encourage pregnant women" to get vaccinated.
She recommends advice on jabs be offered at every opportunity.

 

[Montecfo]

I heard a short interview with Dr Gottlieb. He thinks we are vastly underestimating the spread of Delta, maybe only 1 in 10 infections are actually getting reported. Since most are young with mild or no symptoms, the medical system does not see them. He also thinks we should be gearing up for booster shots for older and more vulnerable people now. I have found him to be rather accurate in his predictions, but also remember he is on the Board of Pfizer.

He also said it would pass at some point in September. A couple of days ago he said cases would begin peaking in the hard hit parts of the country in 2-3 weeks.

 

[Chuckanut]

He also said it would pass at some point in September. A couple of days ago he said cases would begin peaking in the hard hit parts of the country in 2-3 weeks.

Very true. His timelines have tended to be reasonably accurate. As an at-risk person (over 65) , I tend to watch these things carefully. I still maintain a level of cautious optimism.

The Starship remains on yellow alert, and the sensors have been re-calibrated to better detect Delta particle emissions from the new Varian Battle Wagon class vehicles. We may be speeding up some engine upgrades that boost power a bit. In battle, one can always use more power and more speed. Medical has a new batch of the model Number 95 nanobots (Dr. Crasher call them the N95 bots) to use if the crew needs personal protection shielding.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Yes, Delta has pretty much brought our social lives to a halt since DH's doctor said he has to assume the vaccinations were only about 50% effective for him. Studies of people with DH's condition indicate that a third shot will improve the effectiveness of the vaccine for him. Frankly, if I were in DH's shoes I would get the booster shot now by hook or crook. I would go to every vaccine distribution place in town and see if I could get the third shot even if I had to fib to get it. DH is more cautious and wants to wait for FDA approval.

I think the easiest way to do this would involve fibbing...about insurance. How would I go about it? Go out of state. As far as I know, outside of insurance, I don't know of any "central database" that has the entirety of the US and who has been vaccinated. Of course, this is if the adjacent state will vaccinate out of state folks. This is probably how I would do it, but I am still on the fence.

 

[redhead50]

This beautifully presented article is still a bit above my pay grade. A layman’s summary or maybe just pointing out a couple of other key parts of the story would be very nice if you wouldn’t mind.

audreyh1 the Kaiser Health News article posted by MichaelB summarizes many of the complicated Nature article, that you inquired about, at a more accessible level.

https://khn.org/news/article/unrave...delta-the-most-transmissible-covid-virus-yet/


Red Head

 

[audreyh1]

That was very kind, thank you!